The Biden-Harris Administration today released the U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization. Developed by the departments of Energy, Transportation, Housing and Urban Development, and the Environmental Protection Agency, the Blueprint is a landmark strategy for cutting all greenhouse emissions from the transportation sector by 2050. It exemplifies the Biden-Harris Administration’s whole-of-government approach to addressing the climate crisis and meeting President Biden’s goals of securing a 100% clean electrical grid by 2035 and reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. The Blueprint builds on President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act, which together represent historic investments in the future of our nation that will transform how we move and live while we build the backbone of a safer and more sustainable transportation system.
Jointly announced by U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Marcia Fudge, and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael S. Regan, the Blueprint is the first milestone deliverable of the historic memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by the agencies in September of last year. The Blueprint will be followed by more detailed decarbonization action plans, to be developed and implemented by these agencies in cooperation with governments at the state, local, and tribal levels, philanthropic organizations, the private sector, and global partners.
“The domestic transportation sector presents an enormous opportunity to drastically reduce emissions that accelerate climate change and reduce harmful pollution,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm. “DOE is prepared to implement this Blueprint alongside our partners within the Biden-Harris Administration to ensure all Americans feel the benefits of the clean transportation transition: good-paying manufacturing jobs, better air quality, and lower transportation costs.”
“Transportation policy is inseparable from housing and energy policy, and transportation accounts for a major share of US greenhouse gas emissions, so we must work together in an integrated way to confront the climate crisis,” said U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. “Every decision about transportation is also an opportunity to build a cleaner, healthier, more prosperous future. When our air is cleaner; when more people can get good-paying jobs; when everyone stays connected to the resources they need and the people they love, we are all better off.”
“Under the leadership of President Biden, EPA is working with our federal partners to aggressively reduce pollution that is harming people and our planet – while saving families money at the same time,” said U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael S. Regan. “At EPA, our priority is to protect public health, especially in overburdened communities, while advancing the President’s ambitious climate agenda. This Blueprint is a step forward in delivering on those goals and accelerating the transition to a clean transportation future.”
“The people HUD serves deserve clean, affordable transportation options,” said U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge. “HUD is proud to join our federal partners at Energy, DOT, and EPA to ensure that clean transportation investments are made equitably and include communities and households that have been most harmed by environmental injustice. We look forward to working together to better align transportation, housing, and community development investments in these and other communities across the country.”
The transportation sector—which includes all modes of travel through land, air, and sea to move people and goods—accounts for a third of all domestic greenhouse gas emissions, negatively affecting the health and well-being of millions of Americans, particularly those in disadvantaged communities. Transportation costs are the second largest annual household expense in our country and for the poorest Americans, the financial burden of transportation is disproportionately and unsustainably high.
A well-planned transition to a decarbonized transportation system can address these and other inequities and provide equitable, affordable, and accessible options for moving people and goods. Further developing and deploying clean-energy technologies such as electric vehicles and hydrogen and sustainable fuels, while also building out the supporting infrastructure for clean transportation, will create good-paying jobs in all segments of the transportation sector while strengthening America’s energy independence.
The Blueprint is a critical step in the ongoing partnership between DOE, DOT, EPA, HUD, and stakeholders and will be followed by more detailed sector-specific action plans to create a comprehensive suite of strategies to realize an improved and sustainable transportation future. Learn more about the MOU and Blueprint.
LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES
With more than 280 million vehicles on the road, light-duty passenger vehicles—cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks—are the primary mode of passenger travel in the country and account for over 75% of total U.S. passenger miles traveled REF, REF. LDVs are responsible for about 50% of total transportation energy use and emissions: over 120 billion gallons of gasoline consumed sold in the interim are as efficient as possible will further reduce energy needs and emissions during the transition. The rate of EV adoption and speed of vehicle replacement will affect the degree to which LDVs use liquid fuels in the decades to come. Thus, sustainable fuels provide an additional opportunity to reduce the emissions of legacy internal combustion engine vehicles still on the road in 2050 and beyond. and over 1,000 MMT CO2 emitted each year REF. Lightduty passenger vehicles are also major contributors to air pollution, which especially impacts people who live near highways. The fuel economy of new LDVs has improved by about 30% over the past 15 years, driven largely by regulations, including EPA GHG emissions standards and the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards established by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. This improved fuel economy has translated into significant per-vehicle energy and emissions savings REF. However, sales trends toward larger and less-efficient vehicles have led to lower overall emission reductions than would have been achieved without these market shifts REF. Achieving 2050 net-zero-emissions goals will require transitioning new LDV sales to zero-emission EVs by the mid-2030s, and then rapidly replacing the legacy stock of higher-polluting fossil-based vehicles with zero-emission EVs. Ensuring that fossil fuel vehicles Sales of plug-in battery EVs have been rapidly increasing in recent years thanks to technology improvements and lower costs (especially for batteries, as shown in Figure 10), supporting policies, and increased availability of charging infrastructure REF. In 2021, U.S. EV sales more than doubled to over half a million vehicles sold, reaching 4.5% of the total market share. Globally, EVs accounted for 9% of new vehicle sales in 2021, with Europe and China representing the two largest EV markets REF. In California, where support for EVs has been substantial, EVs accounted for about 18% of vehicle sales in the first half of 2022 REF. Despite this progress, more than 99% of LDVs on the road in America today still rely on gasoline17 or diesel fuels, since only a small fraction of vehicles are replaced each year. A rapid acceleration of new EV sales will be critical to achieving decarbonization goals. 17 Motor gasoline is a blend of 90% fossil gasoline and 10% ethanol.59 With sales increasing globally and manufacturers planning to spend more than half a trillion dollars on EV and battery development through 2030 REF, it is clear that EVs are a viable technology to dramatically reduce GHG emissions from LDVs by 2050. The number of EV models available is also rapidly increasing, with more than 100 models currently or soon-to-be available across multiple vehicle classes, including larger SUVs and pick-up trucks REF. The outlook for EV growth for personal and commercial vehicles is increasingly positive, and over time the environmental benefits of zero-emission vehicles combined with progressive grid decarbonization are expected to compound REF. Further technological progress will accelerate EV competitiveness for additional applications and increase affordability for $297 23 Li-ion w. Silicon Lithium Metal EV Purchase Price Parity with Conventional Gasoline Vehicles Li-ion w. Graphite
1 IMPROVED AFFORDABILITY
Vehicle battery costs dropped 90% over the ten-year period ending in 2020, creating less expensive overall electric vehicle costs. Studies indicate that when battery costs reach an average of $100/kWh (or $60/kWh per cell), EV purchase prices (MSRP) will reach parity with gasoline-powered vehicles. Multiple technology pathways exist to achieve this cost Figure 10. Battery cost evolution and projections (2021 USD per pack-level usable kilowatthour (kWh)) Data source: DOE Vehicle Technologies Office REF. Investments, including from the BIL, IRA, and the CHIPS and Science Acts, are ensuring battery costs continue to decline and that reliable and secure supply chains and manufacturing are available. all consumers. Batteries are projected to continue to improve and become cheaper, especially as domestic minerals processing and cell production capacity increases, enabling further competitiveness over the next decade. Still, significant challenges remain to achieving high market penetration of EVs over the next decades, and multiple actions are needed to achieve 2030 and 2050 goals:
1. Implement policy and regulation to expand the market share and use of EVs. Government, industry, and labor set a target of 50% new light-duty EV sales share by 2030 REF. The actions needed to achieve this goal will demonstrate the viability and underlying benefits of EVs, including lower costs, and put us on a pathway for 100% EV adoption. EPA and DOT are currently evaluating future GHG emissions and fuel economy policies that will support this transition while ensuring that new internal combustion engine vehicles sold in the interim are as efficient as is feasible. At the same time, tax credits and manufacturing incentives established by the IRA are designed to reduce the costs of new and used EVs and strengthen supply chains and domestic manufacturing. The federal government is also leveraging its scale and procurement power to transition the federal fleet to EVs, with the goal of having 100% of its vehicle acquisitions for its fleet of more than 600,000 vehicles be zero-emission vehicles by 2035 (2027 for LDVs) REF. Regional, state, local, and Tribal actions can also enable more rapid zero-emission vehicle transitions. For example, 13 states—California, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington—have adopted mandates on automakers’ sales of zero-emission vehicles, charting a course toward 100% EV sales REF. Additional policy and vehicle incentives may also be needed to encourage legacy fleet turnover to EVs, at least until the additional purchase cost of EVs is sufficiently lowered to achieve widespread adoption. EVs generally have much lower operating costs, so educating consumers on the total cost of EV ownership relative to conventional vehicles (rather than simply comparing purchase prices) could also speed adoption.
2. Continue EV charging infrastructure investments and planning to ensure every individual and business has access to convenient and affordable charging whenever needed. These actions will entail an equitable expansion of access to charging, including widespread public charging solutions for those without access to home charging (workplace, curbside, multi-unit buildings with shared parking), and ubiquitous fast charging networks. A major expansion of the U.S. charging ecosystem will offer opportunities to rapidly charge EVs during long trips, ensure consistent and convenient access to charging, and provide charging assurance for all individuals, including those without personal access to vehicle chargers. Moreover, investments must support network maintenance to ensure that a well-functioning and reliable charging system is available at all times.
The Joint Office of Energy and Transportation will be a critical part of this effort. Created through the BIL to coordinate efforts between DOE and DOT, the Joint Office supports the president’s goal of deploying 500,000 EV chargers by 2030. Combining the expertise of both agencies, the Joint Office is helping to implement BIL programs that will jumpstart a national network of EV charging along our highways and throughout our communities. In collaboration with regional, state, local, and Tribal jurisdictions, the Joint Office can help ensure that all Americans have full access to charging infrastructure. EPA is working with the Joint Office to help communities plan for investments in EV charging infrastructure and to ensure chargers are distributed equitably and in ways that will bring additional co-benefits. Local 61 and state governments can update ordinances to encourage or require vehicle chargers, particularly at multi-unit dwellings or commercial buildings that also support interoperability. Additionally, it is imperative to develop and implement solutions for effective vehicle-grid integration, as EVs are expected to become one of the largest electricity load categories by 2050. Managed charging and incentivizing charging at times that are beneficial for the grid can provide valuable demand-side flexibility to better design and operate the power system, reducing electricity costs for all and increasing resiliency.
3. Fund research and innovation that will continue to improve vehicle, battery, and charger performance and reduce costs, and leverage large investments from BIL, IRA, and the CHIPS and Science Act to develop a domestic EV manufacturing supply chain that is reliable, secure, and creates equitable cleanenergy manufacturing jobs, as articulated in the National Blueprint for Lithium Batteries REF. Based on its research and development activities, DOE projects that new technologies under development will reduce battery costs to $80–100/kWh over the next decade, which is expected to allow EVs to achieve purchase price parity with conventional vehicles REF. Moreover, EVs offer lower operational (fuel and maintenance) costs by being more efficient and having fewer moving parts than conventional vehicles. These benefits offer significant cost savings, especially for consumers who own older vehicles REF. DOE estimates the maintenance cost of EVs is 40% cheaper than for internal combustion engine vehicles, which can amount to thousands of dollars of savings over the course of a vehicle’s lifetime REF. Additional research and innovation will be required to accelerate these trends in efficiency and performance, and to continue developing future generations of battery technology
